BUS 540 WEEK 5 MIDTERM
BUS 540 Week 5 Midterm
1.
Deterministic
techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
2.
A joint
probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually
exclusive can occur simultaneously.
3.
An inspector
correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10
products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is
0.736.
4.
A decision tree
is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes,
and branches.
5.
Starting
conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
6.
Excel can only
be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random
variables.
7.
Data cannot
exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
8.
Qualitative
methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term
strategic planning process.
9.
__________ is a
measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
10.
In Bayesian
analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of
the occurrence of an event.
11.
The __________
is the expected value of the regret for each decision.
12.
Developing the
cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
13.
A seed value is
a(n)
14.
In the Monte
Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability
distribution.
15.
Two hundred
simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown
from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the
simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.
16.
In exponential smoothing,
the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent
demand.
17.
__________ is
absolute error as a percentage of demand.
18.
__________ is a
category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future
behavior.
19.
14, and
15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The
U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per
acre is distributed as follows:
20.
__________ is a
linear regression model relating demand to time.
21.
Which of the
following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond
the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
22.
Consider the
following graph of sales.
23.
__________ is
the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
24.
__________
methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term
strategic planning process.
25. A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard
deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to
four places after the decimal.
26. An online sweepstakes
has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to
one entry.
27. A fair die is rolled 8
times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between
2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
28. A life insurance
company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability
distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal
distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What
proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?
Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
29. An investor is
considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each
opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff
table below.
30. The local operations
manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers.
He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with
the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of
dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
31. Given the following
random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25,
40, 86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution
of demand.
32. The following data
summarizes the historical demand for a product
33. The following data
summarizes the historical demand for a product.
34. Daily highs in
Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102,
101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving
average.
35. Robert wants to know
if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
36. This is the data from
the last 4 weeks:
37. Daily highs in
Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102,
101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted
moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are
applied to the most recent data.
38. Given the following
data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
39. Given the following
data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a
6-period time frame:
40. Given the following
data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a
6-period time frame:
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